Guest: Ryan Berlin, rennie Intelligence

On this edition of Journal, we try to find truth amidst all of the contradictory data and headlines on housing.

Not long ago, there was one newspaper story lamenting the disastrous state of residential construction and another story (the very same day) saying things were looking up.

And then, the confusing headline – “Housing starts are up but sales are down.” Huh? What does all this mean?

One thing to know is that in the real estate business, “starts” are a lagging indicator – that means those “starts” are about the past, as contradictory as that sounds. Many of those projects were initiated several years before today and may have been years in the developing / permitting / financing process and are just now in construction – thus, the use of the term “starts.”

On the other hand, sales tell you what is happening real time. How many actual properties successfully changed hands this quarter? How many built condos are sitting empty? One estimate says there are more than 2500 newly built, never lived-in condos available in Metro Vancouver – the highest number in this market in 25 years. rennie Intelligence calls this a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” for buyers.

But does availability mean affordability?

And why so many layoffs in the housing industry?

Ryan Berlin is the senior economist and Director of rennie Intelligence and the man leading a team of housing experts analyzing the data and the public policies shaping our housing market.

He has always been generous to me with his time, his analysis, and his predictions of where we are in the housing cycle and where we might be headed.